Last Friday, Iranians went to vote for members of their national legislature,
which begs the question, why do we hear so little these days about
elections in Iran? The A.P. reported: "Conservative opponents
of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad already won an outright majority of
seats of the new parliament in the first round of elections held in
March. Only 65 seats in the 290-member legislature are still in
contention."
We hear that the sanctions are biting,
and any scrap of "news" that floats in about their nuclear
program, whether verified or not, but virtually nothing about the future of
Iranian leadership -- a critical factor, one would think.
In 2009, coverage of their elections
was huge. Even though, as Nina Hamedani of the Washington Report
on Middle East Affairs
reported, "The U.S. has no interests section, consulate or
embassy in Iran. As a result, American media and diplomats are
absent from the situation on the ground, raising the question of how
much they really understand about what is happening in Iran, and
why...", that did not keep our media from plastering "inside" stories all over our airways.
We
did not hear much about the presidential debates in 2009, or the corruption
allegations made against Rafsanjani, or the poll by BBC and ABC which
indicated "an 89-percent voter turnout and a 2-to-1 advantage
for Ahmadinezhad nationwide." (in an article by Hamedani). But
we heard lots about street demonstrations and violent suppression (the
journalistic adage applies: "If it bleeds, it leads.")
We
heard about the Green Movement (sounds fresh and
environmentally-correct, doesn't it?), but not about the fact that their leader,
Mousavi, "helped form the Islamic Republican Party in
1979...served as party secretary and chief editor of the party
paper..." and was appointed by Khomeini to the Iranian Council
of the Islami Republic, a body formed to guide the new government.
Mousavi served as prime minister. "His wartime administration
during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88) tolerated no public demonstrations
of popular dissent," Hamedani reminded us.
We
heard that Mousavi planned to disband Iranian state television and do
away with the basiji, but little about his substantive policies on
foreign relations or the economy.
As
Hamedani pointed out, "American analysts failed for the most
part to explain the many incentives to vote in Iran...voting has been
a duty and responsibility of citizens ever since 1979, representing a
distinct break from dynasties and inhertied rule...a stamp on one's
voter record [is important] as a sign of loyalty to the Islamic
Republic (in case one wants to start a business, for example."
Further,
she said, "it may surprise many Westerners to know, the Islamic Republic
of Iran does not have a history of fixing votes -- in part, perhaps,
because the Guardian Council's vetting of candidates ensures that any
extremely unfavorable individuals do not become candidates."
The
person who said "No one in their right mind can believe"
the results of the June 2009 elections -- Grand Ayatollah Montazeri
-- was also the one favored by Khomeini as his successor. Hardly a johnny-come-lately to IRI politics.
In
short, most of the people "covering" Iran don't know enough
to really analyze electoral activity in the country. The same people
who declared Dewey president, who didn't see Floridian chads and the Supreme
Court decision coming in 2000, and who thought Newt Gingrich would
stay in to the bitter end, make futile attempts to unravel a much
more complex political environment in an isolated country halfway
around the world.
One
Iranian voter in the recent round of Parliamentary elections was quoted (by AP) as saying, "I voted for the
group that will help more jobs to be created. Ahmadinejad could not
bring more jobs. We need some people in the parliament to push him in
a right direction." In other words, "it's the economy,
stupid." Maybe our commentators should start looking at Iranians
more as human beings like us, and the Iranian government as something
quite different from ours; they might guess right more often.
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