MJ Rosenberg, after a career as a
staffer in both the House and the Senate, several years in the
executive branch (Department of State) and more time in
non-governmental policy-oriented groups, including AIPAC, writes this
week (5/13) on a vote in the lower house of the Congress, which shows
just how dangerous things have become:
Rosenberg, with President Obama |
On Tuesday, the House of
Representatives is slated to vote on a resolution designed to tie the
president's hands on Iran policy. The resolution, which is coming up
under an expedited House procedure, was the centerpiece of AIPAC's
recent conference. In fact, 13,000 AIPAC delegates were dispatched to
Capitol Hill, on the last day of the conference, with instructions to
tell the senators and representatives whom they met that supporting
this resolution was #1 on AIPAC's election year agenda.
Accordingly, it is not particularly
surprising that the resolution is being rushed to the House floor for
a vote, nor that it is expected to pass with very little opposition.
Those voting "no" on this one will pay a price in campaign
contributions (the ones they won't receive) and, very likely, will be
smeared as "anti-Israel." That is how it works.
Most of the language in H. Res.568 is
unremarkable, the usual boilerplate (some of it factual) denouncing
the Islamic Republic of Iran as a "state sponsor of terrorism"
that is on the road to nuclear weapons capability.
The resolution's overarching message is
that Iran must be deterred from developing weapons, a position the
White House (and our allies share). That is why the sanctions regime
is in place and also why negotiations with Iran have resumed (the
next session is May 23).
But the resolution does not stop with
urging the president to use his authority to prevent a nuclear-armed
Iran. If it did, the resolution would be uncontroversial .
But there is also this: The House
"urges the President to reaffirm the unacceptability of an Iran
with nuclear-weapons capability and opposition to any policy that
would rely on containment as an option in response to the Iranian
nuclear threat."
Think about that.
The resolution, which almost surely
will pass on Tuesday, is telling the president that he may not "rely
on containment" in response to "the Iranian nuclear
threat."
Since the resolution, and U.S. policy
itself defines Iranian possession of nuclear weapons as, ipso facto,
a threat, Congress would be telling the president that any U.S.
response to that threat other than war is unacceptable. In fact, it
goes farther than that, not only ruling out containment of a nuclear
armed Iran but also containment of an Iran that has a "nuclear
weapons capability."
That means that the only acceptable response to a nuclear armed or nuclear capable Iran is not containment but its opposite: war.
That means that the only acceptable response to a nuclear armed or nuclear capable Iran is not containment but its opposite: war.
U.S. Rep. Joseph Lieberman |
Any doubt that this is the intention of
the backers of this approach was removed back in March, when the
Senate was considering new Iran sanctions. Senators Joe Lieberman
(I-CT), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Bob
Casey (D-PA) offered their own "no containment" language to
the sanctions bill and the Senate moved quickly to accept it.
However, amending a bill once it is
already on the Senate floor requires unanimous consent and one, and
only one, senator objected. Rand Paul (R-KY) said that he would
oppose the containment clause unless a provision was added specifying
that "nothing in the Act shall be construed as a declaration of
war or an authorization of the use of force against Iran..."
That did it.
Israeli politico Avigdor Lieberman |
Neither the Democratic or Republican
leadership would accept that (knowing that AIPAC wouldn't) and Paul's
objection killed the bill, for the time being. In other words, the
purpose of "no containment" language is precisely to make
war virtually automatic. Because Paul's provision would thwart that
goal, it was unacceptable.
So now it's the House's turn.
On the substance, the "no
containment" idea is absurd and reckless.
Imagine if President Kennedy had been
told by the Congress back in 1962 that if the Soviet Union placed
missiles in Cuba, he would have no choice but to attack Cuba or the
USSR. If it had, it is likely none of us would be around today.
Presidents need latitude to make
decisions affecting matters of national security and, until now, all
presidents have been afforded it, as provided for in the United
States Constitution. But, in the case of Iran, the cheerleaders for
war are trying to change the rules. They are doing that because they
understand that after almost a decade of war, the last thing
Americans want is another one.
No president is going to ask Congress
to declare war, or even to authorize it. Making war against Iran
automatic would eliminate that problem. (That is precisely Sen.
Paul's objection; he believes that backing into war is
unconstitutional. He recalls the Gulf of Tonkin resolution of 1964
which led to ten years of war in Vietnam and 50,000 American dead
without a declaration of war or even a specific authorization for
war).
So why would the House vote for a
resolution like this? The main reason is AIPAC. It may be the only
lobby pushing for war with Iran but it also, by far, the most
powerful foreign policy lobby and also the one that sees to it that
those who play ball with it are rewarded and those who don't are
punished.
The other reason is that the resolution
is non-binding. Voting for it is good politics but does not affect
policy.
Believing that is a mistake. An
overwhelming vote for "no containment" may not tie the
president's hands legally, but it does go a long way to tying his
hands politically. After all, Congress will be expressing its clear
(bipartisan) intent. A president cannot easily ignore that.
Moreover, the lobby is unlikely to stop
with a non-binding resolution. Once the House and Senate have passed
that, the lobby will look for an opportunity to make it binding. The
goal is to take the president's discretion away from him because this
president is unlikely to choose war when there are other options
available.
It is those options that the lobby is
determined to block. It remains hell-bent for war.
Follow MJ Rosenberg on Twitter:
www.twitter.com/mjayrosenberg
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