Richard Silverstein wrote this piece,
which appeared on his blog "Tikkun Olam/Making the World a
Better Place" on May 6:
Israeli Elections Accelerate Iran
Strike
Bibi Netanyahu has announced new
national elections for September, which he hopes will further
solidify what I call the permanent Israeli far-right majority. A
majority that portends a further erosion–or perhaps, final
disintegration–of what little is left of democracy, civil liberties
and everything else embodied in a western liberal state. As if this
wasn’t bad enough, there is another weighty matter that could be
impacted by a Netanyahu victory: an attack on Iran.
Most observers believe that when Bibi
left Washington after his last visit, Obama secured a commitment that
Israel would not attack Iran before the U.S. presidential election in
November. With the Israeli prime minister likely to win a new term in
September, this would set up a perfectly timed opportunity for
Netanyahu to launch an attack post-November.
But there is an alternate prospect. In
1981, Menachem Begin attacked the Iraqi Osirak reactor a few weeks
before an Israeli election. It was a gutsy move since the Israeli
Opposition, most of the world, and especially the U.S. opposed such
an attack. If it had gone wrong, Begin might have lost the election.
As it was, even with a successful (in the short-term) attack, the
election was extremely close and he barely squeaked by. So there is
an Israeli political precedent for a prime minister to bet the house
during election season with a military attack against an Arab enemy.
Besides, Bibi’s predecessor resorted to wars twice during his term
believing they would give him a political boost (it’s doubtful they
helped much since Israelis eventually came to believe that both were
mismanaged).
If Netanyahu did attack in the summer,
before the election, he would be in far different circumstances than
Begin was. The current Israeli leader has a stable coalition
government likely to win the next election. An attack on Iran, though
likely to be denounced by the world, would likely play well, at least
initially, to the Israeli electorate. From Bibi’s point of view,
attacking Iran could transform the election from a mere victory into
a historic landslide that would give him not just a mandate, but a
historic one that would translate into many more years of right-wing
dominance of Israeli political life. Polls taken now show Likud
picking up three seats, and Kadima, the sole centrist party under its
new leader, Shaul Mofaz, collapsing almost into political oblivion.
Even if it joined a coalition with the rebounding Labor Party, it
could not muster enough seats to outnumber a far-right coalition.
Though many Israelis deride Netanyahu
as being a waffler, deeply cautious, a political turtle, if you
will–the man clearly has a Napoleonic-Churchillian complex and
grandiose visions of his place in history. This is the sort of plan
that would appeal to his over-sized ego. And a resounding victory
would provide him the mandate to go to war.
Ari Shavit, writing in Haaretz, sees
things a bit differently. He believes Netanyahu will davka attack
Iran just after the September elections, but before the November U.S.
elections. The benefit to the prime minister, at least as Shavit sees
it, is that Obama’s hands will be tied as he will not want to upset
the election apple cart in order to take Israel to the woodshed.
While I’ve never lost out by setting a very low bar for Obama’s
political fortitude, even this might be too much hubris for the
Israeli prime minister to assume. It just might be possible for Obama
to show some spine if Bibi deliberately tries to exploit a political
vacuum before the November election.
Returning to the upcoming Israeli
elections, another reason Bibi set them for September, I believe, is
a longstanding mistrust of Pres. Obama. He knows the U.S. leader is
likely to be re-elected in November. Thus, he wants to present Obama
with a fait accompli after the latter’s election. He wants to come
at Obama from a position of maximum strength, having just won a
resounding election victory in September. This will help insulate
Bibi from any of the onerous demands Obama might seek to make of him
afterward and guarantee that the president’s next term will offer
little in the way of compromise from Israel.
For those who read Hebrew, I relied on
several articles in writing this post: Ben Caspit, Ari Shavit and
Nahum Barnea, among others.
NB: It should be noted that since this
appeared, there has been a significant change in Israeli politics.
Netanyahu has been able to gain the collaboration of the Kadima Party
in his ruling coalition, and has put off the scheduled elections (for
at least another year). This may well make the circumstances
described by Silverstein all the more urgent.
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