Almost everyone was surprised by the
recent shift in Israeli politics. This is the way Churches for
Middle East Peace [full disclosure: I am a member of the CMEP board]
covered the development, and its possible impact on planning for a
strike on Iran:
Elections Cancelled After Late-Night
Deal
In a stunning turn of events, Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancelled the elections slated for
September and broadened his coalition by striking a deal with Shaul
Mofaz, leader of the opposition party Kadima. Kadima is the largest
single party Knesset and after the deal, 94 out of the 120
legislators are in Netanyahu’s coalition. This arguably makes
Netanyahu the strongest prime minister since David Ben-Gurion in
1948. It is unclear at the moment what effect this turn of events
could have on several important issues identified as essential by
Netanyahu, including the peace process, a new election law
marginalizing small political parties, military service for Orthodox
yeshiva students, the evacuation of settlements ruled illegal by the
Israeli Supreme Court, and
the threat from Iran.
The two men struck a deal early Tuesday
morning unbeknownst to several Knesset members preparing for an all
night session to dissolve the legislative body in preparation for the
elections. The gossip about a deal started around 1:00 AM when a
security guard told someone he saw Netanyahu and Mofaz on the Knesset
compound. The tired Knesset members in the cafeteria were abuzz as
rumors swirled. At 2:00 AM, members of Likud, Kadima and Labor
parties finally assembled in a room where Netanyahu informed them of
the deal.
Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
formed the center-left Kadima party after splitting from Likud over
negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and the disengagement
plan in 2005. In 2006, Sharon suffered a stroke leaving him
permanently incapacitated and his nascent party with an improbable
future. The party continued under Ehud Olmert until he left the party
in 2008. Tzipi Livni won a subsequent leadership election and helped
Kadima win the most seats in the 2009 elections. She was unable to
turn the victory into a coalition strong enough to form a government
and Netanyahu became prime minister. During her time as the Knesset
opposition leader, Livni earned a reputation for not challenging
Netanyahu effectively. In April, Kadima voters ousted Livni from the
top spot and elected Shaul Mofaz to lead the opposition party.
Mofaz was born in Tehran exactly six
months after Israel declared independence. Nine years later his
family immigrated to the Jewish homeland. Mofaz stirs up mixed
reactions from the left and right. He has several credentials that
appeal to right-wing Israelis. He served in one of the Israeli
military’s elite units during several wars…He was the military
chief of staff and later defense minister during the Second Intifada.
He received criticism for his tough tactics including the devastating
Jenin offensive and the demolition of Palestinian homes as
punishment. In 2005, he entered politics as a member of Likud but
switched to Kadima a month later. Recognizing that the occupation
presents a security threat to Israel, he supports negotiations with
the Palestinian Authority. In 2009, he devised a plan for a peace
agreement that initially gives Palestinians 60 percent of the West
Bank and then negotiates the rest with equal land swaps. After his
election to Kadima spot in April, Mofaz told The New York Times’
Ethan Bronner, “I intend to replace Netanyahu. I will not join his
government.” He went even further on his Facebook page in March,
writing, “Listen up: I won't join Bibi's government…This is a bad
and failed government and Kadima under my leadership will replace it
in the next elections. Is that clear enough?”
Last week, the CMEP bulletin explained
that Netanyahu planned to call for elections in hopes of modifying
his coalition and getting more leeway when dealing with settler and
ultra-Orthodox factions in his government. The deal with Kadima can
solve those same problems. Netanyahu summed it up best, telling
reporters, “I realized that it was possible to restore stability
without holding elections.”
The ultra-Orthodox haredim parties Shas
and United Torah Judaism were constraining Netanyahu’s ability to
reform the controversial Tal Law that currently exempts Orthodox
yeshiva students from performing military service. In February, the
Supreme Court ruled the law is illegal because it gives the haredim
preferential treatment and the court gave the government until August
to repeal or replace it. Kadima and another secular coalition party
Yisrael Beiteinu want to make the service mandatory for everyone. Now
Netanyahu can find a more equitable solution since Shas and United
Torah Judaism cannot topple the government by withdrawing.
The Supreme Court set another deadline
that put Netanyahu between a rock and a hard place. In September
2011, the court ordered the government to evict settlers from five
permanent buildings in the Ulpana neighborhood and the government
agreed to do so by May 1, 2012. The potential evictions divided the
coalition. Right wing Likud members insist the Knesset pass
legislation to circumvent the order after the court rejected the
state’s request to reconsider the decision on Monday, a week after
the deadline passed. During the hearing, the justices imposed a July
1 deadline for the buildings’ demolition. Netanyahu hopes to find a
legal solution to keep the settlers in place but with the addition of
Mofaz and Kadima, he would have the support to raze the buildings if
he decides to go that route.
Benjamin Netanyahu: This proves
Netanyahu is the king of Israeli politics. With 94 seats, he has room
to maneuver on the Tal Law, settlement outposts, election reform and
peace without the even more right-wing politicians holding his
government hostage if he chooses. The way things stand now, Netanyahu
will be prime minister until 2013 and if he wins again, he could
still be in office in 2018.
Shaul Mofaz and Kadima Politicians: The
deal gives Mofaz and Kadima more influence in the government in the
short term. Under the deal, Mofaz will be vice prime minister in
Netanyahu’s cabinet and more Kadima members may become ministers in
the future. Polls indicated that Kadima would not fair well in the
September 4 elections, probably only retaining 10 of their 28 seats.
Now those Knesset members can relax knowing their job is likely safe
until at least 2013. If the settler and ultra-Orthodox parties jump
ship, Kadima members will likely gain the vacant ministry positions
in the cabinet.
The Kadima Party: Since Sharon and
other Likud members broke away and formed Kadima in 2005, Likud’s
politics have shifted further to the right. Bringing Kadima
politicians back into Likud could shift the balance of power
back to the moderates. The deal has also damaged the party’s
credibility. One Israeli analyst said the deal is a “complete
capitulation” and “the beginning of the end for Kadima.”
Already, a Kadima official has quit the party. Haim Ramon told Ynet
that, “From an ideological standpoint, Kadima no longer exists for
me…Kadima has reverted to being Likud. Many (members) have wanted
this to happen the whole time. They voted out Tzipi Livni.”
Opposition: Before this deal, the
opposition to Netanyahu’s government had 54 seats spread amongst
seven parties. Now, there are only 26. This is not even enough to
call a special session of the Knesset to force the prime minister to
defend his policies. Chairwoman for the Labor party, Shelly
Yachimovich, is now the official opposition leader and has her work
cut out for her. She has already taken a firm stance against the new
coalition, calling it an “alliance of cowards.” However the
opposition’s loss could be temporary. Many are speculating that
Tzipi Livni could make a dramatic return to politics by forming her
own party with at least five possible Kadima defectors who disagree
with the shift to the right. If the five find two more members, they
can form a new faction and receive funding. It would only take a
party of nine members to take the opposition from Yachimovich and
Labor.
Ultra-Orthodox: The ultra-Orthodox
haredim parties Shas and United Torah Judaism are typically the king
makers in Israeli politics. Before the agreement, they stood in the
way of Netanyahu’s ability to reform the Tal Law in order to
protect the haradim’s narrow interests. Exempting them from sharing
the burden of military service while the government subsidizes most
of the 60 percent who are unemployed makes secular Israelis uneasy.
Now that secular parties hold 70 of the 94 seats in the coalition,
the ultra-Orthodox are no longer the lynchpin and their influence is
waning.
The Peace Process: For those who
intensely focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it can be hard
to believe that the peace process is not always front and center in
Israeli politics. Domestic squabbles provided the impetus for the
agreement, but peace is not irrelevant. Since taking office in 2009,
Netanyahu has not shown any real initiative to revive negotiations
but the fresh mandate could give him opportunities to pursue that
goal. If a peace deal came to fruition, the broad coalition could
help him sell it to the public. He may be out of excuses to avoid
negotiations now that he does not have to mollify the right wing and
ultra-Orthodox elements in the coalition. President Obama and other
international leaders also have a choice. Knowing Netanyahu has
flexibility, it could be the perfect time to make a more concerted
push for peace. Like many of the other issues facing Israel, it is
now up to Netanyahu to decide what direction he wants to take the
country.
Many have noted that just prior to the 1967 War, a similar consolidation of Israeli governance took place, speculating that this may augur a movement toward a strike on Iran in the near term. Given the background and track record of a key figure in the rearrangement -- Shaul Mofaz, who has spoken against the idea of a strike -- the opposite could also be true. As the CMEP writer said, time will tell....
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